Transcript 0:00 Good morning, and welcome to the VIP Seat. 0:01 Today is February 6th, and our top news stories in business aviation this week include the Trump tariff threats and how that could be impacting the industry, as well as some new updates happening at Gulfstream and Safran. 0:12 Your hosts today include yours truly, Jessie Newior, and our co-host today is Nathan Winkle. Nathan, welcome to the show. Well, thanks for having me, Jessie. I appreciate it. 0:19 I've been looking forward to being able to be in the VIP Seat with you for a while. Yeah. So thanks for having me. 0:25 No, back in the day, I was, I think I was the first podcast I was ever on was your podcast, uh, Jet Blast. Yeah, yeah. Good old Jet Blast. You know, it may make a comeback, uh, to be determined, so. There we go. 0:35 I- I'm all about it. Let me know. Yeah. I'm, I'm subscribing. [laughs] All right, folks, sit back, buckle up, and let's take off. 0:40 [upbeat music] So the first thing I wanna do today, like we're a business aviation news show, we're not an aviation safety commentary show, but obviously we have to say prayers and our thoughts are with the families of the victims of the crashes last week. 1:02 Not only, you know, the commercial airline crash, but also, you know, this medevac flight that happened. 1:07 It's very near and dear to our hearts and, you know, we even know there are people in our community that were on those aircraft that lost their lives. I will say, I know there's a GoFundMe for one of them. 1:16 I will post the link to that, um, when I release this, but we're not gonna speculate, but we just did wanna acknowledge the victims and, and we're sending our, our thoughts and prayers to them. Yeah. 1:25 Thank you for doing that. I think that's very appropriate. Yeah. It's a sad day for the whole industry. Yeah. 1:31 It's affected everybody and, you know, as painful as these situations are, you know, with any luck, it will help us move forward and will help us focus more on safety, which we're always focused on, but I think in these times, just a little bit more and a little more sensitive to things, so. 1:47 That's exactly right. Yeah, very tough. All right, well, with that, we'll run to the normal show. So the big news this week, and the, on Monday it was pretty wild. The whole- [laughs]... 1:55 weekend and Monday morning convalesced into this crazy day, uh, but the Trump tariffs have been rocking every industry. 2:02 But I don't think people realize just how critical these tariffs could be in private aviation specifically, maybe general aviation as well. But, you know, we're talking about tariffs on flight simulators from CAE. 2:14 Pratt & Whitney engines- Mm-hmm... which we already have supply chain issues with. The list just goes on of the critical parts, components, and manufacturing that happens overseas. 2:24 Um, so there's a pause for now for 30 days, and here's hoping- Yeah... we get some relief from this. But what are you hearing? 'Cause I know your customers have to be asking about this. 2:32 Yeah, you know, it's, it's, you mentioned several that are folks that are affected, you know, CAE, Bombardier, Safran is another one, right? They, they do a lot of landing gear for some of the Bombardier products. 2:43 Certainly Pratt, but Rolls-Royce Canada also, let's not forget about that, right? That's a, that's a huge thing, and to be determined, you know, how all that's gonna play out, right? 2:53 I, I, [laughs] I think, you know, who knows if maybe it's just a play to if they're our 51st state, I guess it really wouldn't matter, would it? Big state, but it's kinda weird. 3:02 But, uh, anyway, I, I, you know, look, I think that the tariff thing is a real deal, and it's certainly gonna influence anybody ordering an airplane. 3:10 You know, the order books right now, without getting into detail by model, um, at Bombardier specifically, you know, we're a couple of years out. 3:17 So if you're signing up, you know, if there's this tit for tat trade wars right now, I think if I'm a buyer or one of my clients that's a buyer, I'm really gonna have to think long and hard, um, that we- we're on some firm footing before I pull that trigger to order, because even if we resolve this tariff issue, um, amicably now, um, who's to say it won't come back in, you know, in a year or two years and right at delivery day? 3:43 So yeah, it's a, it's a tough question. It's definitely gonna have an impact, I feel like, on US orders from Bombardier. Yeah. And it's not just even Canadian manufacturers. 3:53 Bell Helicopters, you know, they're made in Canada. Have been for 35 years, actually- Yeah, yeah, exactly... which I did not realize was so long. 3:59 And a lot of people are like, "Well, this is just Trump," you know, kinda he does this. He goes up there, he makes a big statement, and then he rolls back, like that's his negotiation style. Sure. 4:07 But to be fair, he has talked a lot about manufacturing jobs coming back to the United States. That's right. And I think he realizes how much aviation is made just across the border. 4:18 He, I wouldn't, I wouldn't discount out the fact that he may do other things in the future to encourage that to come back to the US. You know, I could see him wanting our airplanes made in the US. 4:27 I just, I can see- Yeah... that being a push. Well, and I think, you know, there's, we all know there's not that many OEMs, right, that, that are building business jets right now, right? 4:36 We- we're down to, you know, the, I think the top five, right, big players, or top six, and, and three of those are outside the US, right? We've got Dassault, we've got Embraer, and we've got Bombardier, right? 4:47 So, you know, there's talk of EU tariffs, and then what happens, you know, eventually sure Brazil comes into the conversation, so. Mm-hmm. 4:54 I, I, you know, look, we, you know, luckily Phenoms are built down in Melbourne, but the rest of, you know, if you buy a Praetor, you might be in for a little bit of a surprise here. 5:03 And, and again, if you got one on order, what does that mean? Right? Like- Right... 'cause we're two and a half years out on all those airframes, so- Yeah... what does it mean? I, I don't know. 5:14 We need to get- So I would-... an attorney on the show to talk about is that, is that force majeure if your cost just went up 25%? Oh, yeah. I don't know. That's a great question. 5:20 For sure, because that leaves you, you know, your only options, and, and I know we have something coming up we're talking about in a minute, but that leaves your only options Gulfstream and Textron really at this point, you know? 5:30 I mean... And even that, I mean, components, you know? Mm-hmm. Very critical- Oh, yeah... expensive components. I mean, the engines alone are, you know, hold most of the value of the asset. Those engines- Yeah... 5:40 are not being made. And, and, and look, d- don't forget about our friends down south, right? 5:44 So Mexicali, Mexico, every OEM, um, that I know of in, in North America that builds airplanes have components that are manufactured in Mexicali, Mexico. Wire harnesses, Gulfstream. 5:56 Wire harnesses for their airplanes are made in Mexicali. They have a huge component repair facility down there and, and component manufacturing facility. There's al- you know, Honeywell. 6:06 There's several people that have, uh, facilities for whatever reason in Mexicali. It's gonna be a real, real-Punch in the arm to I think our industry generally. 6:16 Prices are undoubtedly gonna have to go up to cover this I don't know, maybe people will transition back to American planes. I- but they can't produce enough. Yeah, who knows? 6:25 You know, like, the- whatever we do, I hope that this just is a very slow roll because, you know, this 25% that just came out, I mean, that was like panic. What do we do? Yeah. What a kick in the teeth, right? 6:37 [laughs] Yeah. I mean, that's not- Yeah, it is... that's, yeah. Well, it'll be interesting to see how it plays out, for sure. I mean, time's gonna be the answer here, right? 6:44 And, and there's certainly some posturing and some hot air, but I, look, the, your question initially was what, what are, what are buyers saying? 6:51 And at the end of the day, I think if you're representing a buyer of a new business jet or you're representing, um, a flight department that's getting parts and services out of Canada, you need to be, or Mexico for that matter, you need to be very aware of how that could affect your bottom line. 7:08 Yeah, no, and, uh, yeah, be prepared, do the research, figure out where your- That's right... your parts and components are coming from. Engines- Yeah... landing gear, I mean, there are so many critical parts. 7:17 So, you know, the, the DOs, aircraft management companies, and brokers out there, they got a little more, uh, work on their hands probably the next couple months- Indeed... figuring all this stuff out. Indeed. 7:25 Everybody's watching. Yeah. Well, speaking of engines, Safran actually came out with a really cool announcement this week. Mm-hmm. 7:32 So everyone's been working on, you know, electric motors and engines for the burgeoning eVTOL industry and just general electrification of aircraft, and the first electric motor of this type and capability has actually been certified by EASA. 7:46 Mm-hmm. So that's great news for them. That's awesome. Uh, we don't, we don't know about the battery power part of it yet, but at least we've got the engine to power it. That's great news. Yeah. 7:54 Yeah, I think the question for this, right, for me is I, I'm pretty pumped up about the hydrogen power solution- Mm-hmm... 7:59 because I think from, like, an infrastructure end, and you know in your previous life as an operator, right? 8:05 Like, I think of an infrastructure and ease of converting my FBOs or my locations where my owners are at, I think it'll be easier going to a hydrogen solution just logistically. 8:17 I mean, charging stations, I, look, I'm a big fan of the whole Bye Aerospace thing. I think that's super cool, and I think that's a great way to train. 8:25 But I think infrastructure's gonna become the key to be able to support that, just like it was when Tesla started out, right? Like, the, the limiting factor early on was lack of superchargers. 8:36 So, you know, if somebody's willing to make the investment and come out and set up charging stations at all these FBOs, then may- maybe it becomes a thing. 8:43 But yeah, then we've got batteries and we've got weight and we've got a whole bunch of conversations to have, so. 8:48 It's, yeah, it's like, it's, that's the thing with aviation, like as soon as you get, like, one little piece done, then you've got, like, the 10 other pieces that have to all work out. [laughs] Well, for sure. 8:55 And it's like eVTOL, right? It's never simple. We talked about that for, for years, and the NBAA's talked about it, right? And there, we've seen companies come and go, right? Mm-hmm. 9:03 And some would say that some of them are Ponzi schemes and whatever. But some, you know, obviously there's a legit desire for that to happen. Yes. 9:11 But it comes down consistently to an infrastructure problem, like how do we get power on top of buildings in Dallas, Texas to be able to support this concept, or in Dubai or, or wherever it might be to, to make this work. 9:24 And I thi- I think infrastructure, again, is, is the only limit. But it is interesting, and it is encouraging that we have a power plant now. Mm-hmm. So we, we just gotta go on to the next step. 9:34 I mean, that's where, that's where it starts. And I, I think too, you know, like you were saying, the trainers, I mean, this could unlock a lot of potential for aircraft training. Yeah. 9:42 It could reduce costs- Absolutely... potentially of aircraft training. I love that, you know, the pipist- Yeah... Pipistrel, I can never say it right, um- Yeah. [laughs]... 9:49 you know, those electric aircraft, I mean, I think makes a ton of sense, not only for, you know, the noise reduction over- Right... neighborhoods so people don't complain about the kids that are flight training outside. 9:59 Um, but also they could build the infrastructure. You know, a school could have their own station, their own power. It, the model works- Sure... a little better for that. We'll have to see about- Are you a pilot, Jessie? 10:07 I can't remember. I think I've asked you this before. So I, I have 20 hours, um, but no- Yeah, so we're in the same boat... [laughs] I'm not a commercial pilot. So I gotta tell you, we're in the same boat. 10:15 We're in the same place, right? So pilot-wise. I don't know how I would feel, though. Like, I think the Bye Aerospace airplane's super cool as an example, right? 10:23 But I've often wondered, like, how weird is that gonna be where all you hear is the wind coming by the aircraft and whatever's coming off the prop. I don't know if I could, I don't, I don't know. I don't know. 10:34 It's maybe like gliding, you know? Have you ever been in a glider? I guess so. It's pretty, it's pretty quiet. Yeah, maybe. I guess. 10:39 I have to make it like those, some of the, uh, hybrid cars, like, um, my son's girlfriend has this, um, little hybrid thing and, and it- Yeah... whistles when it backs up, right? And maybe we have to make it whistle. 10:49 Yeah. Yeah, I don't know. I never caught the flying bug. I, so I went to air traffic control school. That was where, that's where I kinda started. That's right. 10:56 And as a requirement of my program, you know, we had to do ground school, we had to do instrument school. Yeah. Like, we, we went through all the motions, and I did, you know, the flight, the- I get it... 11:05 the flights to go through it. But it just never really, like, I was like, "Eh, I mean, it's cool," but just seemed like- Yeah... a really expensive hobby at the time. 11:12 Yeah, and it's one of those, it's just sorta like golf, right? Like, you have to do it all the time to be good at it, and I, I, and- Yeah... I don't have time for golf or flying airplanes. I, you know- Yeah... 11:21 [laughs] I just don't, I don't have time for it. Well, and honestly, if Cirrus, you know, if the prices ever came down on the 22s, then maybe I, I've told my husband- Well, that's true... 11:29 you know, "If we get one of those, then maybe I'll, I'll, I'll bother." Yeah. Yeah. To finish the process. [laughs] I hear you, man. I hear you. Uh, but yeah, I mean, it'll be interesting to see. 11:37 I know there's already customers signed up, um, for the aircraft. You know, you've got Bye, you've got Electra, Diamond Aircraft. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. I also wonder, too, some of these eVTOL companies, as they're, 11:49 you know, realizing the complexity, maybe they'll start to go outsourcing their power plant. 11:53 You know, some of them had talked about doing everything in-house, but if you have a really good option to just slap onto the aircraft, maybe that's the way you need to go. 12:00 Yeah, and, you know, look, the whole do everything, I mean, we all know that doesn't work. Like, like just generally, I mean- For sure... it seldom works, right? 12:09 I mean, you w- you wind up with some proprietary widget that can't be gotten anywhere, a- and just it's... And people can't work on it or train on it or whatever. 12:19 It, it, uh, I think it, buy some things on the shelf.Yeah, yeah Make it easier They, they may be tran- I, I see some press releases in our, like, 30 to 60-day- Yeah... future, potentially. 12:28 I think- Well, you know, we do have a story later on in the show about a passenger taking mushrooms and jumping on an aircraft- [laughs]... which I cannot wait to talk about. Yeah. 12:36 But before we get there, [laughs] we do have more, uh, stories in the OEM space. So Gulfstream, they had their Q4 earnings recently, didn't deliver as many aircraft as they expected in Q4 or the, for the year. 12:48 They were supposed to deliver 150. They ended up at 136, but they had a 36% jump in sales. So- Yeah... it feels like the same story across the board with all the OEMs. 12:59 They're trying to build, and they're trying to meet the capacity and the demand, but, uh, it's just challenging. You know, supply chain, employees, everything. Yeah. 13:08 I think that's right, and I think with Gulfstream, you know, it's a little different maybe than the others. As, as we said before the show started, I'm a, I'm a reformed Gulfstreamer myself from a previous life. 13:17 And, and admittedly, you know, at, at my firm now, we don't do as many Gulfstream deals as we do other OEM deals, and not by design, just by, by happenstance, right? But- Mm-hmm... 13:28 I will say, if you look at the main difference I see in the, uh, OEM space is that Gulfstream has been out developing new products, right? And, and if you compare that to some of the others, we've refreshed products. 13:41 I hope I don't hurt your feelings by saying y'all didn't develop new products, but you refreshed existing ones. Mm. And Gulfstream's been out, out doing some clean sheet stuff. 13:49 And, and look, that's going to, especially thanks to our friends up in the Pacific Northwest, um, we, you know, we now have higher scrutiny to get airplane certified. Maybe we should have all along, right? Mm-hmm. 14:02 But I think those timelines have certainly impacted Gulfstream. I mean, we know that for a fact, that it impacted. I think, uh, Phoebe Novak said that in her earnings re- report. 14:12 I watched it, and she said something to the effect that, you know, the, one of the biggest headwinds for them in the past year was G700 certification, and, and slower than because of, um, some of this FAA scrutiny, and, and again, probably should have always been there. 14:28 But I think the sales jump is more about, look, they've got some products that are really interesting, right? 14:33 Now, we can debate price point for the cabin class, right, all day long, but, but I think, you know, the, uh, the, uh, G400, which is, you know, yet to enter service, but very interesting, a, a cabin class, you know, that's with the Challenger 650 and the Falcon 2000, that is largely stagnant right now- Mm-hmm... 14:53 and has been for years, right? So I think the G400's really interesting. I think it's expensive, candidly, but I, I think it's interesting. 15:01 The 500, 600, 700, now the 800 that's in flight tests, you know, all those things, I mean, those are fresh, new looks. 15:11 Yeah, they still have oval windows, and they still have a, a Gulfstream logo on the data plate, but I think that's the reason you're seeing sales spike at Gulfstream. I, I- Yeah... 15:21 I don't think it's, you know, that their airplanes are any better. I think people are desperate for something new. Mm-hmm. 15:27 And, and, uh, I think they're desperate to em- you know, embrace some technology, and, um, that, that's the main reason. I, you know, and eventually there'll be a G300. 15:37 You know, nobody really wants to talk about what's happening with the G280, but something has to happen in that space, right? Yeah. And so- Yeah... 15:42 again, I think that's gonna keep running the, running the, uh, order book for Gulfstream for a little while, because they've invested a ton of money in, um, aircraft development. 15:51 Well, and, and candidly, I've never operated Gulfstream, but I mean, the thing I have heard- Mm-hmm... is that parts supply chain, much better, support much better. 16:00 I mean, I've have you heard that from buyers in the past as well? Yeah. Yeah. Y- yeah. I mean, it, look, everybody has parts problems, right? [laughs] And so- Mm-hmm... 16:08 I, I mean, we all get parts from, uh, sorry, Honeywell, we all get parts from Honeywell, right? Or we all get parts- Mm-hmm... 16:13 from Collins, or we all get parts from Safran, and, and those individual suppliers have their own headwinds and challenges. I do think- Right... 16:21 that, you know, having, when I worked at Gulfstream, I assume they still do it this way, but I think one of the things they do or did do, and probably still do a very good job at, is they hold the suppliers accountable. 16:32 Like, truly in a report card, [laughs] like back in the day, they used to get a report card, and it was red, green, or yellow, right, on how they were per- how the suppliers were performing, both on the, the production side and the in-service side. 16:46 And, and I think- Mm... you know, holding them accountable in that way i, i- is an, you know, maybe the others do it, and I'm just ignorant to it. But I, I will say that's one thing that I think Gulfstream does better. 16:56 But we all, my point was, we all get our parts from the same suppliers- Right... and they all, that's where the challenges are. 17:02 The, the OEMs themselves, they can build an airplane, every one of them can, and they can provide their own OEM parts relatively- Mm-hmm... quickly. But these supplier-provided p- parts are where we get hung up, right? 17:14 Yeah. Well- Especially if you're gonna have tariffs. Yeah. Some, some better than others on their own parts. Yeah. But I won't get into it. Yeah, yeah. Well, that's all right. 17:21 Although I do welcome any OEMs that wanna come on the show and talk about how great their, uh, parts programs are, you are welcome to- Oh, yeah... come on... I, can I just be there to help with that? 17:29 I would co-host with you. How's that? [laughs] We, we have some questions, but you know, like I, it's so many different industries. It's not just us. Yeah. It's everybody. 17:38 But it, you know, fortunately, it seems like you listen to earnings calls for everybody, and that's, it is alleviating. You know, it's not solved, but- Yeah... we're in a much- Yeah... 17:46 better place now than we were, you know, even a year ago. So that's positive. Yeah, and I'm kinda over the whole supply chain has become a crutch though. 17:53 I, I will say that, that with a lot of, a lot of people, and I'm generally the, the guy in the room who has no problem say, calling BS, right? [laughs] Mm-hmm. 18:01 Sometimes on the, the supply chain crutch, I mean, sometimes it's just, it's just poor management, right? Poor operation management or poor production management. And, and- Mm-hmm... 18:10 unfortunately, you know, we, we have this ability to use this crutch of supply chain, and I, I just, you gotta show me, right? I'm gonna show me that. And it's money. So. It's money. Yeah. 18:20 Now look, everybody's trying to, you know, you keep more parts on the shelf, your inventory costs go upThat's right I get that, but it's like you have to have the right balance of customer support versus how much you're gonna keep in inventory- 100%... 18:32 versus how much you're just completely outsourcing to only one supplier versus multiple suppliers. Like, there's, there's management and there's differences in management techniques for all of these OEMs, and- Yeah. 18:42 You know, it's funny you say that. I started writing an article back before the holiday break and, and I need to finish it, it's overdue to my friends over at Global Air, shout out to those guys. 18:52 But, and, and the title of the article is essentially that just in time doesn't work for on-demand business aviation, right? Just in time doesn't work on demand. 19:01 So, you know, but we're all at mercy of the suppliers again, uh, and we can only do so much. But we'll, we'll see. I'll- hopefully that'll be out one of these days. I'll finish writing that. Well, let, let us know. 19:13 We're happy to promote it, we wanna see it. Absolutely. Awesome. All righty. Well, next story, Starlink has been kinda taking over the business aviation space. Uh, it's a great product. 19:23 Um, obviously Gogo Galileo is also launching, everyone's getting into this world. The Europeans are a little uncomfortable with the American dominance of space right now, understandably. 19:32 I think we're doing pretty good on that front. Um, so they're attempting to, the same way they got together to face Boeing and they created Airbus many years ago- Yeah... 19:41 they're now doing the same thing to kind of create, you know, this competitive rocket/communications group. Um, so they're trying to put together Thales, Leonardo, and seeing if they can compete. I don't, I don't know. 19:54 It could go one of two ways. This has sometimes worked. Obviously Airbus worked out really, really well for Europe, and that collaboration was huge. 20:02 But we tried it in the US as well when we launched, um, United, United Launch Alliance. Mm-hmm. We made Lockheed and Boeing work together, and it didn't work out so well. It was very costly and just failed. 20:14 But not completely, but- Me too... way more expensive than private entrepreneurialism. Yeah, I think it's interesting, you know, I, I... 20:21 When you s- ahead of this show, you shared this story with me, and I was, I was reading it, and, and it's, the thing that struck me [laughs] the most is, as the author of the article you shared, [laughs] it says, the title of the article is Europe Has the Worst Imaginable Idea to Counter SpaceX Launch Dominance. 20:39 It, it's kinda interesting that, that, you know, f- folks are already super down on it. Um, it, it will be- Yeah... you know, it will be interesting. 20:48 I think, you know, the satellite piece, that'll probably come to fruition, but I bet you they're winding up using SpaceX rockets before it's over with. I mean, I, it just, it's kinda hard to compete, you know? 20:58 It's sorta like Google, right? If there's something already in the space doing it better than everybody else, why waste the money reinventing that, right? I mean, why not export some SpaceX rockets to Europe, right? 21:09 And, and let's, let's just keep going. But yeah, I do think that if, you know, what, 10 years too late [laughs] for EASA or- Right, yeah... or whatever- Maybe should've started this-... the group is... like 20 years ago. 21:19 Yeah, yeah [laughs], yeah. They're... Talk about behind, man. Like, whoa, goodness. Yeah. I, well, I, look, it, look, SpaceX is not the only game in town anymore. Yeah. Blue Origin, like theirs is- Sure... 21:30 almost up and running. Now, I think some of this, I do understand it from, you know, a sovereign group of nations wanting to be able to compete, I get that, but- Have you followed that Stratolauncher thing at all? 21:41 That big old airplane out in Mojave that was, uh, I'm trying to remember the guy's name. He was part of Microsoft early on- Uh-huh... and he's got that big Stratolauncher. 21:50 It's like six engines and two fuselages, and they launch the spacecraft from in between. You gotta check that thing out. Oh, no, I need to check that out. Oh, that's fascinating. 21:57 I love- It's the biggest airplane that's ever flown. It's, it's really pretty cool. Uh, you'll have to check that out. But that's another one- Yeah... that's become viable. They've been dropping- Mm-hmm... 22:04 some payload from it, so it's kinda interesting. There, there's, you know, it's, it's a really cool time. I'm glad to see space is like, you know, back at it again. Yeah. [laughs] But it takes some serious money. 22:15 I mean, the only people playing in this space doing well are billionaires, so I'm just- Yeah, absolutely... I'm one of the many. 22:19 You know, it's interesting, you know, like, uh, if you watched any things around the inauguration, you know, there's talk about going to Mars or whatever. 22:26 I'm like, uh, "Shouldn't we just see if we can get back on the moon first?" Um, anyway. [laughs] It'll be interesting. I mean, great to have big goals. 22:34 You know, I'm definitely a believer in that, but man, uh, I think we gotta, we gotta- Yeah... walk before, or crawl before we walk. Sorry. I can't tell you how many of those memes I've sent with Elon's face this week. 22:46 [laughs] Yeah, right. Right. Yeah. [laughs] That was, that was fun. But you know what? Good for him. 22:50 You know, he's, he's created something cool and everybody wants to do their own version of it, so we'll see what happens. I mean, I know- Yeah... Air- Airbus worked out. 22:57 Maybe the Europeans are better at collaboration than our, our companies. Maybe. Maybe they have a different culture that works. I don't know. Time will tell. Time will tell. All right. 23:05 But here is the most important story of the week. Man, people, people are weird, or they're feral- I, I just-... I think is what that is [laughs] They are. 23:11 All right, let me, let me read the whole thing out, 'cause it, I mean, the, it's, it's just unbelievable. 23:15 Vermont passenger Steven Shaw, I think private jet passenger, we don't know who, who he was flying on, uh, was accused of trying to kiss a flight attendant, spit on a pilot while armed and high on mushrooms, and who was arrested by Port Authority cops in Teterboro Airport. 23:29 He was hit with a slew of charges, including assault and criminal trespassing, after allegedly storming the tarmac with his two small dogs in tow, according to law enforcement services. 23:40 [laughs] How does this keep happening? I mean, just getting a visual of that, like, the, just getting a visual of those words, like, there's gotta be video somewhere. I mean, come on, man. [laughs] Gotta be. Yeah. 23:51 Well, I just don't understand too, how do these... What? He was a private jet passenger, so I guess he was already there waiting for another aircraft? Yeah, unless he got off of another airplane. Maybe? 24:00 I don't, I mean, how in the heck did he get out on the ramp? Like- Right. Yeah, how did he, yeah, how did he get out there? I, yeah, maybe he walked off of one and went to another. 24:09 There's so many unanswered questions I have in this story. You know, he was in the bathroom apparently barricading himself. He didn't wanna come out. He told the officers he was gonna kill them. 24:18 He was armed, by the way, also had a gun. Uh, and they did- Good gravy... they got him out of the bathroom half naked, but-Nonetheless, they, they did secure him Man And what happened to the dogs? Where are the dogs? 24:30 Yeah, where are the dogs? Where are the dogs? [laughs] Exactly right. The most important piece of this. I mean, you know, it, I, I mean, it's g- it's all kinda funny, but it's also sad, man. 24:40 Mental health is such a, such a thing, and- Yeah... good grief. I mean- I mean, I mean, it was mushrooms... hopefully everybody's okay, right, out of this. But I mean, what is wrong- I don't know... with people? 24:53 I don't know And all these crazy stories are involving mushrooms specifically. I'm like, "Why is this becoming so mainstream?" 25:00 Yeah, but security, I mean, you would think a place, you know, like Teterboro, again, that's pretty high security. I mean- Yeah, it is. I mean-... 25:05 you couldn't even get through the gates unless you have the tail number and they have your name. Like, it, that, that one's pretty locked down And even then, it's difficult. You know? 25:11 Yeah I was a passenger recently on an airplane, actually the airplane I'm sitting in right now, uh, on, on, on an airplane in Teterboro, and I, you know, we left for about an hour, and I came back, and I mean, even with my crew there, I couldn't hardly get out of Atlantic Aviation. 25:27 Oh, yeah. It's kind of bizarre, actually. Yeah. So- Well, I guess- Man... when you're high, you know, you just find a way Man, I don't know. 25:34 Either that or, you know, it could've been one of those times when it's super busy. Like, I know you've seen that before. You get in some of these, you know, high density- Yeah... 25:40 airports with FBOs that are just rocking and rolling, and, you know, he could've just popped out there on the ramp really easy, and I don't know. 25:48 And I mean, if, if you're wagging around a couple of dogs and, and acting half crazy, I mean, that, unfortunately that is some of the passengers that we'll see coming and going. 25:58 That's kinda par for the course- In fact... sometimes. Man, mushrooms. Interesting. Mushrooms. But- Yeah... 26:06 you know, the other thing I did wanna say, you know, there was an announcement this week, too, that Flexjet just bought $8 billion worth of- Oh, yeah, I saw that-... Embraer aircraft... this morning. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. 26:16 I, I don't have too much on the story yet, um, but that's, uh, that's a lot of airplanes. I think 182 was in the order. Yeah. I, look, I, I mean, to that point, here's the one thing I think we probably both agree on. 26:28 Our buddies down in Melbourne and Sao Paulo, they better get ready. I mean, we've got a book of NetJet airplanes coming. I've got clients that are buying. 26:36 I know other, other broker-dealers have clients that have ordered new airplanes, and now we've got Flexjet back in the mix ordering some more. Y'all need to get ready for us. Get ready and stock those parts. 26:48 That's right. That's right. That's right. We want those- That's right... we want those parts. Although, I will say there's gotta, you know, there's gonna be some really good opportunities right now. 26:54 I'm hearing of lots of companies that are stocking landing gear, engines- Mm-hmm... overhauling those parts and components. There's a whole new burgeoning industry around that- Yeah... 27:03 supply chain that's really growing, which I think is great, you know? And, and we're gonna have to have that And you know what's wild is an airplane near and dear to you, the Phenom 300s, right? 27:11 I, I'm starting to see some of those getting parted out already, which is kinda wild that we're already at that point, you know? It's, it's, man, I don't know. 27:19 I, I feel like just last week it was Christmas 2023, and somehow it's almost Valentine's Day of '25. I, I don't know what happened. Well, we love it. Last year, last year. And things are moving and grooving. Yep. 27:28 It's, you guys are busy. Lots of new-time buyers, I've heard. Yeah, yeah, it's, it's been a huge blessing for Thoroughbred. You know, we had, uh, fourth quarter was great. You know, it was a little slow start. 27:38 I think that was the universal sentiment, uh, for, for most brokers, that the fourth quarter had a little slower start, but once it started, it was rolling. 27:46 I mean, we were pretty consistent, I think, starting mid-year last year through the end of the year. But there was, like at the beginning of the fourth quarter, like, "Wait a minute. What's happening here?" 27:55 And maybe it was a little election anxiety, I don't know, but- Mm-hmm... you know, definitely since the first of the year we've seen some first-time owners coming out of the woodwork. 28:04 It, luckily, unlike during COVID, these folks are focused on light jets, good entry-level platforms, you know? Whereas in COVID, I, I, you know, we bought a couple of first-time aircraft owners G550s, right? 28:16 Which was, like, kinda wild. That's a big jump, big bite. But now we're seeing people, you know, be more intentional and methodical about, about their purchases. 28:25 But yeah, we've, we're, uh, we're grateful that folks are encouraged. 28:30 You know, the biggest thing that would help if, uh, if anybody in DC listens to your show is we need bonus depreciation back, so let's, let's, let's get cracking on that. I think it's coming. 28:41 We have several people sitting on the sidelines waiting for that very thing. I think we'll see a big rush. 28:47 Yeah, I mean, he hasn't been doing anything the last two weeks, so I don't know why they haven't gotten on it yet. And there's been nothing going on, [laughs] not a thing. There's been nothing happening. 28:54 Yeah, not a thing. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, I think- Yeah... we'll see it soon... 28:59 I think that's- Uh, you know, but I don't know if we'll even see it in the news 'cause there's too many things coming at us to even keep track of, so we'll see. Yeah, there's so much. I mean, that is right. 29:06 You know, I, I, uh, I, I don't watch a lot of news. I, I'm a podcast and I read my news, right, kinda guy, and I usually do that all early in the morning. But man, there is so much now, like, going on. 29:20 It is hard to keep up with everything that's happening, and it's happening fast. It is, so keep your eyes out and keep listening to The VIP Seat so you know what's going on. There's that perfect plug. 29:31 All right, that, with that, we're gonna wrap the pod today, 'cause we like to keep it short and sweet, make sure you get everything you need to know. 29:37 It's a really curated show where we try to get everything at you fast and quick. We also have an email newsletter that does the same thing, gets all the stories in three sentences or less. So thank you for joining us. 29:46 Please like and subscribe, and we'll see you next time on The VIP Seat. [upbeat music]
